Author: Rory B. Bellows
Things do not look so hot for the Republican Party in 2008. Barack Obama leads John McCain in the polls. Senator Obama raised $52 million last month. The down ballot picture looks bleak with the Democrats poised to make gains in the House and Senate. Some of this is just historical. Americans often tire of a party in power and the GOP has held the White House for 8 years now. Some of this is the GOP’s own fault. Right now the Republican party stands for militarism, warrantless wiretapping and bailouts. That is not a winning platform.
While many will rush to predict a new era of Democratic dominance, I will beg to differ. I think the Republicans are set up nicely for a comeback in 2010 and 2012. The first thing that will happen is new leadership. Majority Leader John Boehner is not a bad Republican. He has never taken an earmark and he should have our enduring respect for that bit of principle. He took over the House Caucus when the GOP was at a low ebb and there was nothing he could do about the losses in 2006 and the probable losses in 2008. However, losses dictate that someone must pay the price and Boehner will do so with his leadership post. After the 2006 midterm debacle, House Republican Study Chairmen Mike Pence and principled conservative Arizona Republican Jeff Flake threw their hats in the ring for leadership positions. They were defeated, but with a shrinking GOP caucus that will consist of mostly red state conservatives, their chances for taking control of the House GOP are extremely high. Pence and Flake will put a new face on the Republican Party. One is from Indiana and the other is from Arizona. Neither is a southerner and both are strong fiscal conservatives. Their election will change the perception of the GOP from that of a southern dominated party that dominated by social conservatives and who desire out of control government spending. The Republican Party will again look and sound like what people expect to look and sound like. No longer being the party of George Bush will help, but a Republican Party that has leaders who not only speak the words of lower taxes and smaller government, but actually believe it and have credibility on the issues will help even more. This credibility will come from not being associated to the mistakes and leadership of the past. The fact that Pence and Flake will be new faces and names on the national stage will allow the GOP to make a clean break from the Bush/Delay leadership that drove the GOP over a cliff.
While the message will change, the GOP will also have to reset the electoral map. This where I think the GOP is well positioned. Take Ohio for example. In 2006, the Democrats blew the Republicans out of the water. They won the gubernatorial and senate campaigns by ridiculously large margins as Ohioans rejected both the Bush administration and the corrupt Administration of Governor Bob Taft. However, Ohio is a swing state. It leans right, but it is in play in Presidential cycles because of the state’s diversity. If you examine the results in 2006 you quickly come to the conclusion that the Democrats maxed out their vote totals. There is no where to go but down. Now, one could make the argument that the Democrats are do not need to win by 12 and 24 points each race. That would be true, but that also discounts for the fact that when you have big margins in swing states like Ohio, it is most likely a rejection of the party in power as opposed to an affirmation of the winners.
Projection by Fivethirtyeight.com also show the Democrats picking up 4 or 5 seats in the Senate. While that would not be a good night for Republicans, it falls far short of the apocalyptic predictions of a 60 seat Democratic Senate majority that bust any Republican filibuster. That would indicate the worst is over for Republicans. Losing 4 or 5 seats is what they expect. They would have held serve in that the Republicans did not lose any seats such as Kentucky or North Carolina that they expected to win.
Now the comeback can commence. The Democrats will be forced to take ownership of issues and legislation. They no longer have President Bush to kick around anymore and have to explain to the American public why thy want to tax them more, spend more and why their gas prices are still high. Red State Democrats will fueled the takeover in 2006 will be forced to walk a delicate line. They can march with Obama’s ultra leftist agenda or they can alienate their voters back home. Either way, the Democrat Party loses.
The Republican base will not be depressed for long. As President Obama, Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid enact the most liberal agenda since the New Deal Republicans will unify in opposition behind new leadership rather then point the guns at each other and play the blame game for electoral losses. As we saw with the Democrats after the 2000 and 2004 defeats, being out of power is he ultimate motivator for a political party. While 2008 looks like it will not be a great year for the Republican Party, the beginnings of a Republican comeback are out there.
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July 28, 2008 at 2:45 pm
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